Seasonal Changes

One of the great things about Wicca (and Paganism in general) is that it affirms that we really are part of the ecology as well as being part of something much larger and greater than ourselves. Back when I was a Christian, I used to wonder why it was that certain days felt more powerful than other days, and why I found the cycle of the moon interesting. Of course, when I discovered Wicca, I found out that I wasn't imagining things. There is a specific life force in everything that lives, not just humans. And this force does have an ebb and flow as the cycle of the year progresses.

So, as I was doing my usual hike on the NCR trail, I really could feel the subtle shift from "summer" to "autumn". It's still hot as the blazes. The leaves are all green. And yet, it really seemed like there is some invisible change in which the collective life force is preparing for the coming of autumn. I wish I could put it into words better than this, but I cannot. I feel blessed that I can have this kind of spiritual experience. I think that being a witch is a lot more that slinging spells (I don't actually do much in the way of spellcraft). Instead, a big part of being a witch is understanding our role in the ecology, being aware of the forces of life and energy, and to help those seeking that same awareness to find what they seek.

As sentient beings, I think we have a special responsibility that other animals don't have. Because we have the power to make changes to the environment, we also have the added responsibility to ensure that the changes we make do not make the ecology collapse. For instance, I understand that we need homes and we need food. But I think we must find ways to make that happen that makes as little negative change to the environment as possible. For instance, it would be preferable to grow food without artificial fertilizers that leech into the water supply and kill off life in streams and lakes. For our homes, it would be preferable if we planted trees in our yards instead of worrying about a pristine lawn. Likewise, cutting the lawn is pointless, since it just consumes fossil fuel and adds to pollution. (Also, grass is actually much taller than 3" in its natural state). I think we should be driving the most fuel efficient cars that meet our needs. Likewise, we should be walking more and driving less. I usually walk to the grocery store and post office instead of driving. It's good exercise and saves gas.

Of course, Wicca isn't the only faith that honors the environment. *Real* Christianity (something not really practiced anymore in the modern day) does instruct its followers to be good stewards of the Earth. Quite a few Eastern religions place a high premium on ecological stewardship. And, of course, the Unitarian Universalists place environmentalism as one of their seven core principles. My estimation is that the only reason why environmental recklessness is only tolerated by the general population for the following reasons: Our elected officials worship the U. S. Dollar as their god; they have lied to the American People about the real costs of ecological conservation so as to scare the populace into not demanding change; the politicians' allies in the mega-churches have lied to the people concerning the Biblical nature of environmentalism (Hint: Jesus never said "Blessed are the strip miners and oil tycoons") but instead have equated ecology with Paganism (while that part is true, Paganism is not actually evil).

My hope is that someday (preferably sooner than later), individual citizens will make better ecological choices on a widespread scale and that those same individuals will make ecology a priority when voting. So far, I haven't seen that happen. I believe, however, that when the Middle East truly starts running dry, you'll see a very large percentage of Americans demanding real action on the environment, alternative energy, efficiency in transport, and sustainable farming. Hopefully they won't wait until it's too late.

The looming end of Dino Fuel?

I think it's really interesting that most people I know are unaware of what a bell curve looks like:

For large oil reserves, the production life of a particular field very closely follows the bell curve progression. For example, the United States hit the top of the bell curve back in the 1970s and those reserves are now about 80% exhausted. When the "peak oil" hit, the drop in Texan oil production happened very quickly and very dramatically, leading to huge price increases, gas rationing, and the formation of disastrous trade deals with nations that don't necessarily like the United States.

As a nation, we should have learned something from that catastrophe. Government policy should have been rewarding innovation in automotive efficiency. Instead, the average fleet fuel economy remained nearly unchanged for 40 years.

Fast forward to 2006. This is the year that the Middle East reached peak oil. Sometime between 2012 and 2016, it is very likely that production output will begin to have a very steep, sustained decline. It will make the Texas peak oil of the 1970s look like chump change. It won't be a matter of simply paying very high prices for gasoline. It will be a matter of not being able to get gasoline at all. If OPEC has a choice of selling fuel to India, China, and America, which nation will get first dibs (hint: it's won't be us).

By 2050, however, the Middle East oil fields will be in the same condition as the Texas oil fields are in now. And that will bring humanity to face another uncomfortable problem: overpopulation. From what I have been able to research online, the Earth can sustain indefinitely between 1-2 billion people if you take fossil fuels out of the equation. The Earth is almost at 7 billion people. So we're basically overpopulated by a factor of three.

I don't see a way around a terrifyingly brutal ecological correction of the human population towards the middle of this century. I really do believe the human race will survive. I really do believe Earth's ecology will survive. But I think that humanity will cause grievous injury to the planet during the last ten years of the big oil crunch. They will try to extract oil from shale. They will convert coal to oil. They will convert crops to fuel. All these things will deplete the water from the ecology or water and farming land. Of course, that ecological devistation will only hasten the ecological correction of the human population.

So... what will the human race be like by 2150?

It will be a much less populous species. Without electricity, the Internet, cars, modern medicine, etc., people without practical skills in agriculture, construction, cooking, and sewing will be unable to survive (personally, I would starve since I don't know the first thing about raising crops or cattle). My best guess is that there will be a few hundred million people worldwide and it will take several hundred years to build back up to the ecological maximum.

Without fossil fuel, the future humans will be unable to make some of the same mistakes we made. If cars make a comeback, they will have to run on something other than gasoline. Likewise, future humans won't be able to "cheat" on crop production using petroleum fertilizers because there won't be any petrol. With fewer natural resources, the future humans will be far less likely to create "throwaway" cultures. (Actually, I think today's junkyards will be tomorrow's mining operations since we throw away so much plastic and metal). My guess is that planned obsolescence will be considered obscene. Technology will likely grow at a much slower rate, but it will grow. I'm hoping that the new Dark Ages lasts only a hundred years and not several hundred years.

I really do that humans are innovative and survivors at heart. I think the humans of the post-oil age will make better decisions than we did. I think they will find energy solutions that we are too lazy, blind, or greedy to see. And I think the future archaeologists will be able to look back on the madness and irresponsibility of this era and use that information to guide humanity away from future disasters.

Green Pursuits

So... Sometimes I take the time to evaluate my level of commitment to the ecology. Reverence for nature is a central aspect of Wicca, and I take it pretty seriously. But I think there is always room for improvement.

• Things I do right:

I recycle bottles, cans, and cardboard. Doug and I both drive very fuel efficient vehicles (his car gets 32 MPG and mine gets 51 MPG). I walk to the grocery store, pharmacy, and post office instead of driving. I only have lights on in rooms I am using. Our computers are laptops instead of desktops (18 watts vs 200 watts). In summer, we only have AC on in rooms we are using. In winter, we set the heat in the 59-62 degree range. We use CFL bulbs for illumination (12w vs 75w). At work, I developed a printing method that consumes 2/3 less paper. Doug carpools to work with a coworker (which essentially doubles his effective gas mileage since only one car is being used instead of two).

• Things I am not doing but would like to do:

I'd love to have solar panels on the house, but they are $20,000 and there's no way Doug and I could afford it. I can do better at remembering to bring reusable grocery bags when shopping (instead of the throwaway flimsy plastic bags). I could do a better job remembering to completely unplug seldom-used appliances (so as to avoid the "vampire" effect in which unused gadgets continue to draw power even when not turned on). I spend way too much time in the shower in the morning (I have this irrational fear about smelling bad but I don't think I ever actually smell bad. I just fear such a thing.)