The looming end of Dino Fuel?

I think it's really interesting that most people I know are unaware of what a bell curve looks like:

For large oil reserves, the production life of a particular field very closely follows the bell curve progression. For example, the United States hit the top of the bell curve back in the 1970s and those reserves are now about 80% exhausted. When the "peak oil" hit, the drop in Texan oil production happened very quickly and very dramatically, leading to huge price increases, gas rationing, and the formation of disastrous trade deals with nations that don't necessarily like the United States.

As a nation, we should have learned something from that catastrophe. Government policy should have been rewarding innovation in automotive efficiency. Instead, the average fleet fuel economy remained nearly unchanged for 40 years.

Fast forward to 2006. This is the year that the Middle East reached peak oil. Sometime between 2012 and 2016, it is very likely that production output will begin to have a very steep, sustained decline. It will make the Texas peak oil of the 1970s look like chump change. It won't be a matter of simply paying very high prices for gasoline. It will be a matter of not being able to get gasoline at all. If OPEC has a choice of selling fuel to India, China, and America, which nation will get first dibs (hint: it's won't be us).

By 2050, however, the Middle East oil fields will be in the same condition as the Texas oil fields are in now. And that will bring humanity to face another uncomfortable problem: overpopulation. From what I have been able to research online, the Earth can sustain indefinitely between 1-2 billion people if you take fossil fuels out of the equation. The Earth is almost at 7 billion people. So we're basically overpopulated by a factor of three.

I don't see a way around a terrifyingly brutal ecological correction of the human population towards the middle of this century. I really do believe the human race will survive. I really do believe Earth's ecology will survive. But I think that humanity will cause grievous injury to the planet during the last ten years of the big oil crunch. They will try to extract oil from shale. They will convert coal to oil. They will convert crops to fuel. All these things will deplete the water from the ecology or water and farming land. Of course, that ecological devistation will only hasten the ecological correction of the human population.

So... what will the human race be like by 2150?

It will be a much less populous species. Without electricity, the Internet, cars, modern medicine, etc., people without practical skills in agriculture, construction, cooking, and sewing will be unable to survive (personally, I would starve since I don't know the first thing about raising crops or cattle). My best guess is that there will be a few hundred million people worldwide and it will take several hundred years to build back up to the ecological maximum.

Without fossil fuel, the future humans will be unable to make some of the same mistakes we made. If cars make a comeback, they will have to run on something other than gasoline. Likewise, future humans won't be able to "cheat" on crop production using petroleum fertilizers because there won't be any petrol. With fewer natural resources, the future humans will be far less likely to create "throwaway" cultures. (Actually, I think today's junkyards will be tomorrow's mining operations since we throw away so much plastic and metal). My guess is that planned obsolescence will be considered obscene. Technology will likely grow at a much slower rate, but it will grow. I'm hoping that the new Dark Ages lasts only a hundred years and not several hundred years.

I really do that humans are innovative and survivors at heart. I think the humans of the post-oil age will make better decisions than we did. I think they will find energy solutions that we are too lazy, blind, or greedy to see. And I think the future archaeologists will be able to look back on the madness and irresponsibility of this era and use that information to guide humanity away from future disasters.